Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Arthur Hayes Predicts $125K by End of 2026 Based on Global Liquidity

TLDR

Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder, predicts Bitcoin will reach $125,000 by the end of 2026. He says the main driver is expanding global liquidity, not regulation or politics. BTC is currently trading around $75,820, below the key $78,000 resistance level. Hayes is critical of U.S. crypto regulation efforts and says Bitcoin doesn’t need government oversight. Geopolitical tension between the U.S. and Iran is a factor, but Hayes says markets are still focused on liquidity trends.

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Bitcoin price remains stuck below the $78,000 resistance zone, but BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes isn’t concerned. Speaking at Bitcoin Las Vegas 2026, Hayes laid out a clear case for why he believes BTC will hit $125,000 before the end of the year.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price

Hayes said the main driver behind his prediction is global liquidity. He argues that rising defense spending across major economies is pushing governments to expand their money supply. That kind of environment, he says, historically benefits assets like Bitcoin.

LATEST: Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin will hit $125K by year-end, arguing that wartime defense spending, banking deregulation, and up to $4T in new credit creation will flood markets with liquidity. pic.twitter.com/zpOTBGRBSm

— CoinMarketCap (@CoinMarketCap) April 29, 2026

He also pointed to structural shifts in U.S. banking, suggesting banks will soon be required to absorb more government debt. This, he believes, will push even more liquidity into financial markets.

At the conference, Hayes shared a livestream of his speech titled “Twenty-one Weeks Later,” in which he outlined his full macro thesis. The veteran exchange founder also confirmed he holds long Bitcoin positions, putting his money where his mouth is.

Hayes on Regulation and Altcoins

Hayes was openly critical of proposed U.S. crypto legislation, including the Clarity Act. He said Bitcoin doesn’t need government oversight and should remain permissionless. He said he would prefer that kind of legislation not pass, warning it could damage the core value of crypto.

On altcoins, Hayes pushed back on the idea of a broad altcoin season driven by retail speculation. He said capital is shifting toward platforms with real usage. He pointed to Hyperliquid (HYPE) as one example of a project attracting real liquidity and user activity.

He also dismissed the idea that election outcomes or policy promises have a major effect on Bitcoin’s price. Liquidity, he says, is what matters most.

Geopolitical tensions also featured in his remarks. The Kobeissi Letter posted on X that President Trump rejected Iran’s offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with the U.S. reportedly preparing a plan for a “short and powerful” wave of strikes. Hayes acknowledged the risks but said markets have not moved into full defensive mode yet, with investors still watching macroeconomic liquidity trends closely.

BTC Price: Key Levels to Watch

As of the latest data, Bitcoin is trading at around $75,820. The price has been moving within a tight range, with a high near $76,055 and a low of about $75,708 in recent hours.

The key resistance level is $78,000. BTC has failed to break above this zone in recent days. Momentum indicators are weakening, with the MACD still negative and the RSI sitting near 40 — a reading that suggests mild oversold pressure.

A sustained break above $78,000 could open the door to $80,000, with $82,000 as the next target. On the downside, a loss of $74,000 could invite fresh selling, with $70,000 as the psychological support level below that.

Hayes called the current price action a consolidation phase he expects to give way to a stronger move higher.

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