The Pitfalls Ahead for the Democratic Congress

Poor Democrats. 

After a string of stunning victories in a historic midterm election, Democrats now face the heavy expectations of the voters who handed them their new Congressional majority.

“Democrats need to figure out quickly how to address the cost-of-living concerns that pretty clearly drove this election,” says New York political columnist (and Monthly alum) Ed Kilgore, this week’s podcast guest (watch on Substack here). 

According to exit polls, 89 percent of voters said “cost of living” was a “crucial” or “major” factor in their vote, and 75 percent said the condition of the economy was “not so good” or “poor.” Eighty-seven percent are “very” or “somewhat” concerned about the cost of gas or diesel, 88 percent are concerned about the cost of food and groceries, and 44 percent say their family’s financial situation is worse than it was two years ago. 

Unfortunately, delivering fast relief won’t be easy. 

Democrats face a slew of obstacles that could stymie progress, including an unpredictable president and some harsh fiscal realities. They’ll need to manage voters’ expectations, as well as their own, or the result will be disappointment. 

Trump is still the president and chaos agent in chief.

Democrats in Congress will have limited power to undo bad policies—like Trump’s misguided tariffs and his senseless war on Iran—that are adding to household financial pain. Trump is sure to keep a firm grip on his veto Sharpie and to block any efforts to rein him in, especially on his pet priorities. On election night as the results rolled in, Trump posted a photo of a red MAGA hat emblazoned with one word: “VETO.” 

Trump also still controls the executive branch—more powerful than ever thanks to sheer chutzpah and the compliance of a permissive Supreme Court. Trump’s penchant for mischief will remain undiminished, despite—or because of—his lame duck status. More strikes on Iran, as he threatened pre-election? More deals and feuds with an assortment of world leaders? A doubling down on deportations? The possibilities for chaos are endless. Democrats could wind up spending much of their time defusing the crises ginned up by a volatile president, leaving much less time to govern. 

Reversing Trump’s policies isn’t enough to fix affordability.

Tariffs and wars have worsened affordability, but they’re not the main drivers of high prices. Tariffs, for instance, added just 0.4 percentage points to core inflation this year, according to the Minneapolis Federal Reserve. Inflation was already elevated before the war on Iran kicked energy prices into overdrive. 

Of course, this doesn’t mean that ending the war or canceling tariffs won’t have real impact. They will. But the real problems are much harder to tackle. Huge investments in AI infrastructure, for instance, are pushing up prices for equipment and raw materials. Much of this investment depends on borrowed money, which raises interest rates and costs for everyone. These issues aren’t susceptible to quick fixes, which Democrats must acknowledge as they attempt to formulate solutions. 

The federal government is broke.

Trump’s profligate policies have added trillions to the national debt, which now stands at about $40 trillion. His first term in office added $8.4 trillion to the debt (including about $2 trillion for tax cuts), while his “One Big Beautiful Bill” is projected to add another $4.2 trillion to the debt by 2035. Social Security, meanwhile, is projected to reach insolvency by 2032, which will mean across-the-board benefit cuts of about 25 percent if Congress doesn’t scrounge up funding. 

As a result, Democrats will have almost no capacity to offer big new programs that can ease Americans’ financial burdens. Simply unwinding the Medicaid cuts included in the “One Big Beautiful Bill” would cost about $1 trillion over 10 years, while restoring the Obamacare subsidies that expired last year would cost another $335 billion. Enacting “Medicare for All,” as some Democrats have urged, would be more expensive still. 

According to one Congressional Budget Office analysis of Sen. Bernie Sanders’ legislation, “Medicare for All” would cost the federal government as much as an additional $3 trillion in 2030 (although overall national expenditures on health care would decline). Congress could try to raise taxes on the wealthy, but support for that would have to be veto-proof—an unlikely possibility. Congress could also continue to borrow money, but that would put yet more pressure on interest rates—further raising costs. 

Payback could crowd out progress. 

Many Democrats are eager to punish the Trump administration and its numerous allies and enablers. As the Washington Sun reported earlier this week, one progressive organization put together a 181-page “dossier” on the companies and executives it wants investigated for their ties to the Trump administration. 

While oversight is one of the many core functions Congress neglected under GOP control, an onslaught of investigations could easily consume all of Democrats’ attention. One question already threatening to split the caucus is whether to pursue an unprecedented third impeachment of Trump, despite the near certainty the Senate wouldn’t convict. 

A big risk is a backlash that boosts Trump and destroys the Democrats’ newfound—and fragile—coalition. As Kilgore notes, many of the voters who gave Democrats their victory are the “double haters” who backed Trump in 2024 but have since soured on his presidency. Highly polarizing impeachment proceedings could repel these Democratic-curious voters, blowing the party’s chances of an enduring majority. 

Despite the hurdles, Democrats can still deliver enough progress to hold their coalition together in the long term. A few modest but visible wins, oversight without impeachment theater, and a strong affordability agenda for the future could carry the party through 2028. 

I hope you’ll watch my conversation with Kilgore, where we talk through the landscape of these challenges. Kilgore also talks about the blue-ification of the South, the fate of the post-Trump GOP, and the kind of presidential candidate he thinks could be successful. 

P.S. I learned the hard way how much I rely on natural light for taping interviews. I talked to Ed at the end of the day as the sun was setting (at 4 pm!), which explains the weird shadows and screwed-up lighting. Apologies. 

New at the Monthly… 

Which Senate candidates performed the best? Politics Editor Bill Scher ranked the performance of Democratic and independent candidates for the Senate in comparison to a “generic” Democrat. His list is sure to add to internal party debates over who can win in 2028. See his analysis here. 

Meanwhile, the GOP is learning all the wrong lessons. Trump’s appointment of Stephen Miller as his new chief of staff is an ominous sign of the right’s response, writes Pedro L. Gonzalez: “It boils down to two things: primarily blaming the Iran war while continuing to support a race war.” A reckoning, yes. A reconciliation, no. Read here. 

What 19th century farmers can teach us about AI regulation. Textbooks tend to treat the 19th century Grange Movement as a footnote in history—if it’s mentioned at all—but the populist farmers’ movement could be unexpectedly relevant for the current debate over AI. The movement’s belief that “decisions belong near the people who live with them” should govern AI’s footprint in local communities, write Eli Lehrer of the R Street Institute and Francesca de Quesada Covey of the Knight Foundation. Read their proposals here. 

America’s other gerontocracy problem. Yeah, politicians are way too old. But so are voters, argues Contributing Editor and former Oregon Secretary of State Phil Keisling. Keisling’s analysis of state voter rolls finds that among the voters who turn up for primaries, the median age is 65 years old. Moreover, the turnout among the senior contingent is quadruple that of voters ages 18 to 34. If there’s one reason Gen Z has been dissatisfied with their options in a general election, it’s because they’re not helping to choose the candidates. But given the enthusiasm with which young voters turned out this week, perhaps that’ll change. In the meantime, see more depressing statistics here. 

Plus…

As Democrats work to undo the massive health care cuts perpetrated by the Trump administration and the GOP Congress, they can’t neglect those with private insurance, argues Merrill Goozner.  Elon Musk has hit the limits of his power, writes David Atkins. Former prosecutor James Zirin explains why a fight over a DC golf course is really a test of Trump’s respect for the courts (one that he’s failed, btw). ICYMI, watch Bill Scher’s post-election analysis with Matt Lewis on their bipartisan show, the “DMZ.” 

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