The May Elections Could Spell The End For Keir Starmer. Here's Why

Keir Starmer knows his premiership is in danger.

Pollsters have been charting his decline in popularity over the last 22 months, with divisive policies – such as scrapping the winter fuel payments – and a mounting pile of U-turns, setting voters against Labour.

And that’s before the scandal surrounding Starmer’s decision to make Peter Mandelson – friend of the convicted paedophile Jeffrey Epstein – the UK’s ambassador to the US dominated the national conversation.

Thursday marks the first major test of public opinion towards the government since its landslide victory in July 2024.

It’s also the biggest threat Starmer’s faced since winning the Labour leadership in 2020.

With almost 5,000 councils in England up for re-election, along with the devolved parliaments in Scotland and Wales, the political scene in the UK could be turned upside-down over just a few days.

The results are expected to be brutal for Labour.

The party is on course to lose control of the Senedd altogether after more than a century of dominance in Wales.

Some forecasts suggest Labour could lose 1,860 councillors in England too, while also failing to make any breakthrough in Scotland against the SNP.

All eyes are on Labour MPs to see if they will choose to oust the prime minister in response to the anticipated upheaval.

The party’s rules state any challenger within the Commons needs the support of 20% (81) of all Labour MPs to successfully topple the leader.

This would trigger a leadership contest and Starmer’s name would automatically on the ballot paper.

The party has struggled to unite over regicide in the past, and failed to oust Jeremy Corbyn, Gordon Brown and Tony Blair.

Some MPs fear chopping and changing No.10′s occupant would not help improve the party’s popularity, especially when most of the public want assistance with the cost of living, not another leadership race.

However, allies of Starmer’s rivals have been briefing journalists for weeks about their plans.

Friends of health secretary Wes Streeting claim he has the support of enough MPs to pose a clear challenge to Starmer – despite speculation about how popular he really is within the party.

Former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner also appears to be on manoeuvres, and allegedly has the backing of various trade unions – though she is still haunted by the tax affair which saw her quit government last year.

Andy Burnham, currently the Greater Manchester mayor, is not an MP and so would need to be elected into parliament before he could pose a serious leadership challenge.

But reports suggest he has a plan up his sleeve to be parachuted into a safe seat, with some Labour MPs supposedly willing to step aside for him.

The prime minister is not willing to go quietly, though.

Senior government figures have told HuffPost UK that Downing Street is assembling a top team to save Starmer’s job in anticipation of a challenge in the days after the May elections.

Could the summer end up being a bloody Labour civil war?

Listen to this week’s Commons People as we unpick the trouble ahead for Starmer – and what party insiders are really thinking about Labour’s future.

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