The Grim Reality Behind a New Census Report

Earlier this month, the U.S. Census Bureau released its annual report on the nation’s poverty rate. At first glance, the announcement tells a rosy story: Real median household income is up, and the official poverty rate fell a half a percentage point. What the 2025 numbers reflect, however, is the status quo ante before President Donald Trump re-entered the White House. What the “official” numbers omit are the catastrophic impacts of his administration’s policies on low-income families, and immigrant households in particular.  

We should expect next year’s Census Bureau report to paint a much darker picture.  

On July 4, 2025, the president signed H.R.1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which passed along party lines. It shredded the social safety net—gutting essential programs like Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP)—while transferring billions to the wealthy through tax cuts that drive up our national debt. By design, many of the bill’s cuts take effect in phases, kicking in only after the November midterm elections or in 2028.  

Already, a whopping 7.7 million people were pushed into poverty in 2025 due to out-of-pocket health care expenses, according to the Census Bureau. With millions more expected to lose Medicaid coverage in 2027 under Trump’s cuts, this population will surely grow.  Also, due to H.R. 1, families began losing access to food benefits through SNAP and the Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) program because of eligibility requirements and other burdensome barriers. Not all these losses are reflected in the data released this month.  

Arguably, immigrant households are the most harmed. Because of H.R.1, families without at least one parent with a Social Security number lost access to the Child Tax Credit, one of the most effective anti-poverty programs. These households included 2.6 million first-generation American children. Census data clocked the poverty rate for non-citizens at 24.3 percent in 2025, twice the rate of citizens.  

For decades, we’ve seen ample evidence of our nation’s indifference—even hostility—to immigrants. Let’s start with the 1996 Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act, known as “welfare reform,” which for 30 years (as of last month) has excluded non-citizens in the country legally, such as green card holders or those with Temporary Protected Status, from public benefit programs that address poverty. These include SNAP, Medicaid, and cash assistance through Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF).  

That was bad enough. But today’s reign of terror against immigrants—funded to the tune of $170 billion over four years for enforcement—has led to families torn apart, violence, and even death. It has made documented and undocumented immigrants alike afraid to go to work, take their children to school, and access public benefits for which they’re eligible. The administration’s deportations and immigration restrictions are driving immigrant households into—or in many cases, deeper into—poverty. For instance, the Brookings Institution found that employment dropped meaningfully in 2025 in cities that experienced enforcement surges, and the Capital Area Food Bank’s 2026 Hunger Report noted that fear has kept many immigrant families from using food assistance programs in the Washington, D.C., area.  

September 18 marked the beginning of an even darker period for immigrants with the implementation of Trump’s “public charge” rule, which gives immigration officials greater leeway to deny green cards or visas to applicants they deem likely to use means-tested public benefits. As a result, households frightened by this prospect may not apply for benefits they can lawfully receive.  

Not surprisingly, the Trump administration has pushed other rules to cut immigrants out of anti-poverty programs ranging from Head Start to housing assistance to further restrictions on tax credits. And last week, it unveiled a plan to change the 2030 Census to exclude immigrants who have temporary protected status, are here on work or student visas, are seeking asylum, or are undocumented. This means that the next Census would not count some 16 million people, a number that exceeds the population of Pennsylvania, the fifth most populous state. This sweeping proposal would prevent the equitable apportionment of federal funding for critical public programs like childcare, school lunches, and highway funds. Businesses, too, rely on Census data to make key decisions. 

Instead of the typical 90-day public comment period for a change this significant, the administration has given a mere 30 days, which has sadly become standard practice for this administration. It is unclear whether a new presidential administration that takes office in January 2029 would have sufficient time to unwind this change, given the preparation that’s required to stage an effort as massive as the U.S. Census.  

Despite what the “official” numbers suggest, far too many people in the United States already live in poverty, far too many households do not see a way out of it, and the administration’s policies are making things worse. Its comfort with pushing people out of the safety net, disappearing family members off our streets, and trying to erase some 16 million immigrants from the 2030 Census must be confronted.

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