As Solana (SOL) taps the $225 barrier, Bitwise’s CIO forecasted that a bullish Q4 rally might be brewing for the altcoin if it follows Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum’s (ETH) recipe.
Solana To Follow BTC, ETH’s Recipe?
On Tuesday, Matt Hougan, CIO at Bitwise, affirmed in a new memo to clients that the recipe for strong returns has been clear over the past 18 months: “Take one part ETP inflows, add strong corporate treasury purchases, and voilà—you get big returns.”
Hougan explained that BTC followed this recipe since January 2024, while ETH discovered the same formula in April 2025. “It’s no surprise that the recipe works. It’s classic supply and demand,” he stated, adding that “all the ingredients are there for an epic end-of-year run for Solana.”
As the CIO highlighted, multiple issuers, including Bitwise, Grayscale, and VanEck, have filed to launch spot SOL exchange-traded products (ETPs), which are expected to be approved at the start of Q4.
As reported by NewsBTC, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced last month that it had pushed back its decision on Bitwise, 21Shares, VanEck, Grayscale, and Canary Capital’s spot SOL exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for two months, pushing it to October 16, 2025, “meaning we may have multiple issuers pushing spot Solana ETPs in Q4.”
Meanwhile, three major firms, Galaxy Digital, Jump Crypto, and Multicoin Capital, recently secured $1.65 billion in cash and stablecoins to launch a publicly traded SOL-focused treasury company, Forward Industries, to purchase SOL, stake it, and generate excess return.
Hougan also noted that Forward Industries named Kyle Samani, who has been among the cryptocurrency’s most consistent promoters, as chairman. To Bitwise’s CIO, if Samani can “carry the Solana message” like Michael Saylor and Tom Lee have done with Bitcoin and Ethereum, it will help drive investor demand.
SOL’s Secret Ingredient
Hougan pointed out that the existence of ETPs and treasury companies does not guarantee demand, adding that there must be fundamental reasons for investors’ interest in those vehicles.
“Solana is an Ethereum competitor,” he asserted, “it’s a programmable blockchain designed to host stablecoins, tokenized assets, and decentralized finance applications, among other things.”
The blockchain recently approved a major technical upgrade that will make it one of the fastest networks in the world. Additionally, it is also third in stablecoin liquidity among programmable blockchains and fourth in tokenized assets, recording rapid growth in this sector.
Nonetheless, he argued that there’s a key difference between SOL and the two leading cryptocurrencies. While Bitcoin’s market capitalization sits around $2.2 trillion, and Ethereum’s is near the $530 billion mark, Solana’s market capitalization is around $120.8 billion, 1/20th the size of BTC and less than 1/4th the size of ETH.
“Scaled for the size of the blockchain, a relatively small amount of flows into Solana could significantly impact prices,” Hougan explained.
He detailed that Forward Industries’ $1.6 billion purchase of SOL shares would be the equivalent of $33 billion in BTC purchases, noting that this could be slightly offset by Solana’s higher annual inflation rate of 4.3%, versus Bitcoin’s 0.8% and Ethereum’s 0.5%.
“The setup is still attractive,” he concluded, suggesting that investors keep their eyes on Solana in the coming months.
As of this writing, Solana is trading at $222, a 5.1% increase in the weekly timeframe.
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