Oil Prices Hit $113 as Trump Issues 48-Hour Iran Ultimatum — Analysts Weigh In

TLDR

Brent crude rose to $113.52 a barrel and WTI crossed $100 as Trump’s 48-hour Hormuz deadline loomed Trump threatened to bomb Iranian power plants if the strait isn’t reopened; Iran vowed to retaliate At least 40 energy assets have been damaged across nine countries since the Middle East conflict started The IEA said oil stock releases would not resolve the crisis, comparing it to the two 1970s oil shocks combined Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 Brent forecast to $85 a barrel, up from $77, citing prolonged disruption

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Oil prices climbed again on Monday as markets largely ignored President Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

“If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST…” – President DONALD J. TRUMP pic.twitter.com/htLz1A0Mf7

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) March 22, 2026

Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose 1.2% to $113.52 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. standard, climbed 2.5% to reach $100.71 a barrel. Brent has surged more than 50% since U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran began in late February.

Brent Crude Oil Last Day Financ (BZ=F)

Trump said on Saturday that Iran must “fully open” the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours or face strikes on its power plants. Iran responded by threatening attacks on key infrastructure across the Middle East.

Most analysts and market observers were skeptical that Iran would comply in such a short timeframe. “It is highly unlikely that Tehran will agree to Trump’s terms on such an accelerated timeline under the threat of attack,” said Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context Corp. “Iran is clearly able and willing to match any escalation.”

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. strikes are aimed at destroying fortifications along the strait and that Trump would “take whatever steps it takes” to deny Iran the ability to develop nuclear weapons.

The Strait of Hormuz links the Persian Gulf to global oil markets. Maritime traffic through the waterway has nearly come to a standstill. Persian Gulf producers have been forced to lock in millions of barrels of supply or use limited alternative export routes.

IEA Warns Crisis Rivals Historic Oil Shocks

International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol, speaking at a conference in Australia, said the current disruption was equivalent to both major 1970s oil crises and the 2022 natural gas crisis after Russia invaded Ukraine — “all put together.”

He added that at least 40 energy assets have been severely damaged across nine countries since the conflict began. While the IEA is discussing releasing emergency oil stocks, Birol said such action would not resolve the crisis.

The conflict has now entered its 24th day, twice as long as a similar crisis between the same parties last year.

Goldman Sachs Raises Oil Price Forecasts

Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 oil price forecasts on Saturday. The bank now expects Brent to average $85 a barrel this year, up from a previous forecast of $77. Its WTI forecast was raised to $79 a barrel from $72.

“Flows via Hormuz are now expected to be 5% of normal levels for six weeks, before a gradual recovery,” analysts including Daan Struyven wrote.

They noted that prices are likely to keep rising until the market gains confidence that a lengthy disruption is unlikely.

Haris Khurshid, chief investment officer at Karobaar Capital, said: “It will probably take more broader issues with shipping or insurance before prices start moving more aggressively.”

Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser has withdrawn from the annual CERAWeek conference in Houston, scheduled for this week, where oil market balances and the conflict were expected to dominate discussions.

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