Oil at three-week high as US-Iran peace talks stall, and Goldman lifts price forecast – business live

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Unicredit also have a note out on the oil market this morning, in which they warn:

The Iran war has triggered one of the largest disruptions to physical oil supply in modern history. While de‑escalation could ease some geopolitical risk premiums, the damage to production, exports and logistics means markets are unlikely to quickly return to pre‑war conditions.

We now assume a normalization in Gulf exports by end-June (vs. mid-May prior) and a slower Gulf production recovery. The economic risks are larger than our crude base case alone suggests because of the net upside risks to oil prices, unusually high refined product prices, products shortages risks, and the unprecedented scale of the shock.

We assume that global oil demand falls on a year-over-year basis by 1.7mb/d in 2026Q2 and 0.1mb/d in 2026 given the jump in refined product prices. Because extreme inventory draws are not sustainable, even sharper demand losses could be required if the supply shock persists longer.

Adverse scenario: Brent 2026Q4 would average just over $100 assuming Gulf exports only normalize by end-July.

Severely adverse scenario: Brent 2026Q4 would average at nearly $120 assuming Gulf exports normalize by end-July and 2.5mb/d of persistent reduction to Gulf capacity. This 2.5mb/d of scarring is equivalent to Hormuz flows not recovering above 70% (till pipeline capacity is expanded).

Benign scenario: Brent 2026Q4 would average just under $80 assuming Gulf exports normalize by mid-June, no capacity reduction, and stronger US and core OPEC supply responses.