JPMorgan Thinks the CLARITY Act Can Cross the Line Before the Midterms

TLDR

JPMorgan says only 2–3 issues remain unresolved in CLARITY Act negotiations Stablecoin yield debate is described as “in a good place” by analysts Senator Thom Tillis expected to release a stablecoin yield draft this week The bill is not yet on the Senate Banking Committee’s April 20 markup schedule Polymarket puts 2026 passage odds at 65%, up from 54% earlier this week

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The push to create a formal legal framework for cryptocurrency in the United States is moving closer to the finish line, according to a new report from JPMorgan Chase.

U.S. CRYPTO CLARITY ACT DISCUSSIONS "NEARLY COMPLETE"

JPMorgan analysts say negotiations around the CLARITY Act are "nearing a breakthrough" as lawmakers resolve key disputes over stablecoin rewards and agency oversight. pic.twitter.com/BD4d1COQMw

— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) April 16, 2026

JPMorgan analysts say that most of the disagreements surrounding the CLARITY Act have been worked out. Only two to three key issues remain open, down from roughly a dozen earlier in the process.

The CLARITY Act is designed to be the first broad set of rules for digital assets in the US. It aims to spell out which government agencies oversee which parts of the crypto market.

Right now, there is confusion in the industry about where the Securities and Exchange Commission’s authority ends and where the Commodity Futures Trading Commission takes over. The bill is meant to fix that.

The act also covers how decentralized finance platforms and stablecoins should fit into the wider financial system.

One of the main sticking points has been whether stablecoin providers should be allowed to offer interest-like rewards to holders. Banks have pushed back on this, saying it could create risks without proper oversight.

JPMorgan says the latest proposals on stablecoin yield are “in a good place.” Senator Thom Tillis is expected to release a draft on this topic in the current week.

The bank suggested that the newest stablecoin yield proposal could gain support from both crypto companies and traditional banks. That would be a major step forward after months of deadlock.

Timing Is a Key Factor

However, the bill still faces timing pressure. It is not currently listed on the Senate Banking Committee’s schedule for the week of April 20. The committee’s calendar right now only includes Kevin Warsh’s Federal Reserve nomination.

There is hope among market participants that the committee could still add the bill to its schedule. But no formal date for a vote has been set.

If no vote is scheduled before the May 21 holiday period, the bill could face further delays. That would push the timeline even closer to the November 2026 midterm elections.

Political Risk Remains

JPMorgan flagged the midterms as a real risk. If Democrats win back control of the House of Representatives, crypto legislation could lose its place as a top priority.

A policy advisor quoted in the report said “there is no such thing as a perfect bill,” suggesting that all sides are willing to compromise to get something passed.

Prediction market Polymarket currently puts the odds of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 at 65%. That is up from 54% earlier this week, showing growing market confidence in a deal being reached.

The final text of the bill has not yet been made public.

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