Reform or Plaid? Whichever way Welsh voters go, the country will be utterly transformed | Will Hayward

Each party has its own version of nationalism to offer voters in May’s Senedd election: closer ties to England or more independence for Wales

It’s fair to say that the UK will change after the elections on 7 May. But few places will change as thoroughly as Wales. The polls suggest that after the vote our next Senedd will be led by either Plaid Cymru or Reform: this would make it the first time in 100 years that Welsh Labour is not the largest party in Cymru. However, Plaid and Reform’s visions for Wales are polar opposites – and their supporters are torn between two wildly different visions for their country.

When you look at the Plaid and Reform manifestos, the differences are immediately apparent. First of all, Plaid’s document is a chunky 74 pages compared with Reform’s 18. Plaid dedicates huge amounts of ink to explaining how the party is going to fight for concessions or increased power from Westminster on everything from tax to rail devolution. Contrast that with Reform’s leader in Wales, Dan Thomas, who said that a Reform government in Wales would not “pick a fight with Westminster” except on the “one matter of immigration”.