The Friday Four is a collection of thoughts and information on some intriguing storylines from around the NHL. On deck this week:
• Panthers set up to have a chance at a dynasty
• The risk/reward of short-term vs. long-term deals
• Kings with some curious moves on the blue line
• Jeannot surprisingly still in high demand
Sam Bennett, Aaron Ekblad and Brad Marchand, Florida Panthers
Doubt Bill Zito at your own peril.
Many said it was impossible for the Panthers to sign all three of Sam Bennett, Aaron Ekblad and Brad Marchand, but the Florida general manager retained the trio on long-term deals. Zito even went so far as to give Marchand a six-year contract that will take him to age 43, not fearing how the last few years of the pact will age. He’ll deal with that problem when it arrives, as right now Zito’s main focus is keeping a team together that’s reached three-straight Cup Finals and has back-to-back championships. That’s not an easy task in the salary cap era.
Even with as much success as the Panthers have already had, it’s too early to call them a dynasty just yet. The Tampa Bay Lightning also won back-to-back Cups recently and went to three finals in a row, Sidney Crosby powered the Pittsburgh Penguins to two titles in as many years and the Chicago Blackhawks won three championships in a six-year span. You could make an argument the Panthers are on par with all of these teams, but they still have the advantage of time to work with. Each of those squads couldn’t escape the clutches of the salary cap and sustain their greatness any longer, though the Panthers are not only set up to push for a three-peat, but are positioned to be good for a very long time.
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For a team that’s so stacked with talent, the Panthers are in a remarkably good cap situation. In addition to Bennett, Ekblad and Marchand, Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart, Carter Verhaeghe, Anton Lundell, Seth Jones and Gustav Forsling are all under contract until at least 2030. That’s 10 critical pieces locked in for another five seasons at very digestible cap numbers. Of that group, everyone but Barkov has a cap hit of less than $10 million per season.
The majority of them are also still in their primes. We know that even though Marchand had a stellar post-season, this new deal may not age well, but outside of him, every one of the aforementioned core is under 30 years of age, except for Jones, who is still only 30. Besides Marchand, there should be very little concern about regression over the next five seasons for their most important players.
Florida also has no obvious roster deficiencies that some other great teams had to overcome to win championships. Barkov, Bennett and Lundell may be the best centre depth in the entire NHL, and then you have players like Reinhart, Tkachuk, Verhaeghe and Marchand, who together bring a little bit of everything on the wing. The Panthers’ entire top-nine forwards recorded at least 15 points during this spring’s playoff run. Their blue line isn’t as deep, but they make up for it with value contracts. Ekblad took a big discount to stay, Niko Mikkola provides tremendous value at just $2.5 million and there’s a case to be made that Forsling locked in at $5.7 million may be the biggest steal in the league.
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If there is one area of concern over the next few years, it may be goaltending. Sergei Bobrovsky will be 37 in September and has played a tonne of hockey over the past three years, so at some point it’s inevitable he’ll start slowing down. The veteran has been the perfect fit for these Panthers teams, constantly bailing them out on breakaways and odd-man rushes when their ultra-aggressive play occasionally leaves them vulnerable to a counterattack. Florida is confident Bobrovsky can shut the door, allowing them to forecheck and pinch relentlessly without fear of giving up chances the other way. Should his skills diminish over the next year or two, Zito will have to find a succession plan in goal.
That said, the one silver lining about Bobrovsky aging is that 2025-26 is the final year of his deal and his $10-million cap hit is going to come off the books. If they re-sign him, it certainly won’t be anywhere close to that number, and Florida could spend the extra cap space on another goaltender to work in tandem with Bobrovsky to lighten his workload.
One thing Tampa, Pittsburgh and Chicago had to deal with during their runs was a relatively flat cap. Florida’s ascension is coming at the perfect time to sustain success, as the cap is set to skyrocket in the next few seasons. That, combined with no-state tax and the winning culture the organization has created, should make it much easier for the Panthers to remain competitive for free agents every summer and continue to extend their window.
The last true dynasty we’ve seen is probably the Edmonton Oilers of the 1980s, but you have to adjust your criteria in the cap era. It’s simply harder to have success year over year when there are constraints on how you can build your roster from a financial perspective. The more success you have, the more your players will increase their value, and ultimately, it gets hard to retain everyone when space gets tighter. Florida has arguably navigated this system better than anyone and has a realistic chance to add multiple Cups to its trophy case over the next five years. Should they do so, you’d be hard-pressed to have a conversation about the greatest teams of all time and not mention the Panthers.
Mitch Marner, Vegas Golden Knights
Before Mitch Marner locked in for eight years in Vegas, thanks to a sign and trade, there were rumblings that he may take a short-term deal. That isn’t the first time we’ve seen a star player contemplate not taking max term in hopes of cashing in again later while they are still in their prime, and quite frankly, there are some good reasons for doing so.
With the cap rising in the next few years, AAVs will do the same. Someone like Marner, who just signed for eight years at $12 million per season, could have opted for three or four years and then tried to go long-term one last time when he’s 31 or 32, probably for more than $12 million a year. Sounds simple enough, but that ultimately comes with a fair bit of risk. Hockey is a violent sport and the chance of a career-ending or altering injury is always there. The list of talented players whose careers have been shortened due to injury is a long one.
The other concern when going short-term for someone like Marner would be the uncertainty of joining a new team. Marner was in a very comfortable spot playing next to Auston Matthews and on a really strong power play, clicking at around a 100-point pace for four straight seasons. What if he signed in Vegas for two or three years and the fit wasn’t as good? We saw something like this when Jonathan Huberdeau was traded to Calgary, as Huberdeau’s numbers took a massive hit with the Flames. That’s an extreme example, and I don’t anticipate that happening to Marner, but even if he went from a 100-point player to an 85-point player, that would hurt Marner’s value on the open market if he were a free agent again just a few years later.
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We’ve heard Connor McDavid also may take a short-term deal on his next extension, but that would be less risky because it sounds like he’s staying with the Oilers. McDavid is the best player in the world and he knows Leon Draisaitl is going to be by his side. Plus, his motives for going short-term are a little different. McDavid wants to win a Stanley Cup and wants to give himself flexibility should Edmonton no longer be a contender in a few years.
We may see a few superstars take a short-term deal over the next few years or so, but I don’t think it will become the norm. Matthews decided to go four years on his most recent deal instead of eight, which means he could be in for a big payday in a few seasons. But he also probably left more than $50 million on the table by opting not to sign for eight years. There’s a decent chance he comes out ahead when he signs his next deal, though there are no guarantees. For someone like Marner, he found an organization he’s comfortable with and the contract of close to $100 million guaranteed was too tough to pass up. I suspect most others will ultimately continue to follow suit.
One of the more active teams in free agency so far has been the Kings, and that’s included some questionable moves. Re-signing Andrei Kuzmenko after he thrived last season in Los Angeles? Sure. Bringing in Corey Perry to help out in the post-season? Savvy. But signing Cody Ceci for four years with an AAV of $4.5 million was a head-scratcher.
Even though he can be a useful defenceman if deployed correctly, Ceci will be 32 later this year and was the market for him really that big? That’s a decent amount of term and money for someone who’s probably going to play on the Kings’ third pair. To put it in perspective, Ceci got the same contract as Matt Duchene, who scored 82 points last year, and more than John Tavares, who is coming off a 38-goal season.
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What makes the move even more curious is that they dealt Jordan Spence just a few days earlier. Spence was a plus-23 last season and looked good in a depth role. Now the Ottawa Senators have acquired his services for only a third- and sixth-round pick, which is virtually nothing in the grand scheme of things. Spence will immediately upgrade their third pair and has some upside to potentially earn a spot on the second pair if he keeps developing positively. Not to mention he’s only 24 and was under contract for another year at a very team-friendly $1.5 million.
Perhaps the Kings were attracted to Ceci because of his playoff experience. The veteran has more than 100 post-season games to his credit, whereas Spence has only skated in 13. Los Angeles has to find a way to get past the first round next season, and more specifically, the Oilers. Ceci has been on some deep playoff runs in recent years and that could be valuable to the Kings, but adding him at the expense of a talented young blue-liner probably isn’t the best asset management.
Despite three underwhelming seasons, people still believe in Tanner Jeannot.
The Bruins inked Jeannot to a five-year deal worth $3.4 million per season, one of the more eye-popping contracts after the clock struck noon on July 1. Boston is clearly hoping Jeannot can recapture the magic he had in the 2021-22 season, when he scored 24 goals for the Nashville Predators to go along with more than 300 hits. If you’ve ever watched the Stanley Cup Playoffs, you know that blend of physicality and offensive skill is highly sought after. So much so that the Tampa Bay Lightning traded a prospect and five draft picks for Jeannot’s services. After 75 disappointing games in Tampa, Jeannot was shipped to the Los Angeles Kings for two more draft picks, where he once again fell short of expectations.
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There were signs that Jeannot was going to regress, even if those acquiring his services were blinded by his potential. The hits have remained, but the goals have dried up for Jeannot, which everyone should have seen coming. When Jeannot scored those 24 goals, he did so with a 19.4 per cent shooting percentage. That isn’t sustainable and was inevitably going to come down. In the three seasons since that big campaign, Jeannot has only totalled 20 goals combined.
Any chance of Jeannot being the league’s next great power forward appears to have come and gone at this point. The Bruins didn’t give him a huge AAV, but it’s the term you have to be concerned about. Five years is a long time for a player that’s more likely to end up on your fourth line than in the top six. Boston may regret this deal sooner rather than later. Just ask the Kings and Lightning.
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