Bitcoin is trading at around $75,800 on Saturday morning, and the market barely moved overnight. Sentiment did move. The alternative.me Fear and Greed Index stands at 25 points on November 7, which puts it in "Extreme Fear" for the first time since August 6. What is on record: two days earlier the same index was at 50, right in the middle of the scale. Our assessment follows further down. The fear is larger than the price decline, and that gap is what will decide the weekend.
If you hold Bitcoin or plan to buy it, this article gives you the morning's numbers, a look at the 182 days of extreme fear over the past twelve months and a deadline that expires at midnight today for buyers from November 2025.
Bitcoin price on Saturday morning: $75,800 within a $325 range
According to CoinGecko, Bitcoin traded at $75,812 early on Saturday morning, the equivalent of €68,016. That is a gain of 0.15 percent on the previous day, a loss of 2.0 percent over seven days and a loss of 8.8 percent over 30 days.
The night itself was remarkably calm. Between midnight and 6 a.m. German time, the price on the US exchange Coinbase moved between $75,674 and $75,999. That is a range of $325, or just over 0.4 percent. For comparison: on Thursday almost $5,800 separated the daily high from the daily low, as Bitcoin fell from above $80,800 to $75,035.
The weekly balance is therefore clearly negative. Bitcoin opened Monday at $78,232, rose as high as $81,131 on Wednesday after the US midterms and fell as low as $74,722 on Friday. Anyone who bought on Monday is down a little more than 3 percent.
Fear and Greed Index at 25: Extreme Fear for the first time since August 6
The Fear and Greed Index condenses market sentiment into a single number between 0 and 100. Among other inputs, it factors in volatility, trading volume, Bitcoin dominance and search trends. Readings up to 25 count as "Extreme Fear", readings of 75 and above as "Extreme Greed".
The past few days show how quickly sentiment turned. On Wednesday, the day after the midterms, the index stood at 34, and on Thursday at 50. On Friday it dropped to 28 and on Saturday to 25. As recently as early October it was above 70, at 74 points on October 1, on the threshold of greed.
The price followed this move only in part. From Thursday's high to today, Bitcoin lost around 6 percent, while sentiment halved over the same period. The gap between price and sentiment is the real finding of this Saturday.
What "Extreme Fear" is not
The index is neither a buy signal nor a forecast. It measures how nervous the market is right now, not where the price is heading. A reading of 25 therefore only says that many market participants have turned cautious. Whether that is an opportunity or the start of a longer weak phase will only become clear from the price levels further down.
Since Friday morning: the $74,722 low has held
On Friday morning Bitcoin stood at $75,692 and was already below the 100-day moving average, as our article on the Bitcoin price ahead of the US jobs report from November 6 described. At the time we named $75,230 as the level to the downside and around $76,950 to the upside.
Since then, the following has happened: the $75,230 level was briefly breached on Friday, with the daily low at $74,722 according to Coinbase. Bitcoin then fought its way back and closed Friday at $75,731. The 100-day moving average now sits at around $77,060, a good $1,200 above the current price. Bitcoin has not managed to get above it since Thursday.
All in all, the price today is almost exactly where it was on Friday morning, only about $100 higher. What has changed is sentiment, not the price.
Futures trading at the CME pauses over the weekend, while Bitcoin itself keeps trading.
Bitcoin at the weekend: the CME close at $75,810 as the yardstick
Bitcoin trades around the clock, but the futures contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) do not. The CME halts trading on Friday at 11 p.m. German time and only reopens on Sunday evening. Large funds and banks often trade Bitcoin through precisely these contracts.
This creates a quirk that many traders watch: the so-called CME gap. If Bitcoin moves sharply over the weekend, the futures contract opens on Sunday at a different level from where it closed on Friday. A gap then remains on the CME chart. Part of the market bets that such gaps will later be closed. That is not a rule, but it explains why Saturday's price moves sometimes reverse on Monday.
When the CME closed on Friday evening, Bitcoin stood at around $75,810 on Coinbase. The current price is practically at that level, so there is no gap so far. If Bitcoin rises or falls sharply by Sunday evening, one will open up.
A second point concerns liquidity. Order books are thinner at the weekend because many institutional traders take a break. The same sell order then moves the price more than it would on a Tuesday. Calm nights like the last one are therefore no promise for the rest of the weekend.
Extreme Fear in retrospect: 182 days in twelve months and what came next
Extreme fear is nothing unusual for Bitcoin. Between November 7, 2025 and November 6, 2026, the Fear and Greed Index stood at 25 or below on 182 days, in other words on every second day. The clusters fell in winter and spring: in February, March and June, on 28 to 29 days each. The lowest reading was 5 points on February 12, 2026.
For each of these 182 days we checked where Bitcoin stood 30 days later, based on Coinbase daily closing prices. The result is sobering in its balance. In 113 of 182 cases the price was higher after 30 days, or 62 percent. The median change was only plus 2.0 percent.
Three cases, three different outcomes
January 21, 2026: index at 24, Bitcoin at $89,364. Thirty days later the price was 23.9 percent lower. May 19, 2026: index at 25, Bitcoin at $76,767, almost today's level. Thirty days later the price was 18.1 percent lower, and the low of the year followed on June 30 at $58,524. August 6, 2026: the most recent day of extreme fear so far, with Bitcoin at $64,267. Thirty days later the price stood at $79,832, a gain of 24 percent.The rule of thumb "buy when others are fearful" therefore holds up only to a limited extent under this test. In all three cases, what mattered was not the index reading but whether key price levels held. In May Bitcoin broke below the supports of the time; in August the price turned higher after the June lows had held.
The levels for the Bitcoin price: $74,722, $73,189 and $77,060
Three levels are in focus for the coming days, all calculated from Coinbase daily data.
To the downside: Friday's low and the 200-day moving average
The first support is Friday's low at $74,722, around 1.4 percent below the current price. Below that comes the 200-day moving average at around $73,189. The 200-day moving average is the average of the closing prices of the past 200 days and is regarded as the dividing line between a long-term uptrend and downtrend. Bitcoin is still trading a good 3 percent above it.
To the upside: the 100-day moving average and the weekly high
To the upside, the 100-day moving average at around $77,060 is the first resistance. Above it lies Wednesday's weekly high of $81,131 and, just above that, the 50-day moving average at around $81,970. The fact that the 50-day line sits above the 100-day line, and the 100-day line above the price, points to a short-term downtrend within a long-term picture that is still intact.
The futures market stays relaxed
The futures market is worth a second look. The funding rate for the perpetual Bitcoin contract on the derivatives exchange Deribit stood at 0.0019 percent per eight hours on Saturday morning, practically zero. The funding rate is the fee that long and short positions pay each other to keep the futures price close to the spot price. A reading close to zero means that neither buyers nor sellers are crowding onto one side with leverage. The fear sits in people's heads rather than in overleveraged positions.
For purchases made on November 7, 2025, the one-year holding period ends today.
Bitcoin and the holding period: November 7, 2025 purchases are 22 percent under water
For investors in Germany this Saturday carries a tax peculiarity. Under Section 23 of the German Income Tax Act, gains from selling Bitcoin are tax-free if more than one year passes between purchase and sale. Anyone who bought on November 7, 2025 reaches that threshold at the end of today. A sale from Sunday onwards would be tax-free.
On November 7, 2025, Bitcoin cost around $103,300, or roughly €87,500. Today it is €68,016. Anyone who bought back then is therefore down a good 22 percent. Here the logic of the holding period turns on its head: a loss from a sale within the period can be offset against gains from other private disposals in the same year or carried forward to later years. Once the period has expired, the sale is irrelevant for tax purposes. A gain is then tax-free, but a loss can no longer be used either.
Anyone with gains from short-term crypto sales this year should therefore know before midnight whether part of their holdings dates from autumn 2025. Tax tools that record every purchase with its date show which purchases are affected; our comparison of crypto tax tools gives an overview. Whether realising a loss makes sense in an individual case is a question for a tax adviser. Where the proposed reform of the holding period stands is summarised in our overview of the holding period reform.
Buying Bitcoin in euros: what counts when you enter at the weekend
For buyers in Germany the euro price is what counts, and on Saturday morning it stands at €68,016. If you buy at the weekend, watch two things. First, the spread between the buy and sell price: with thin order books it is wider on smaller platforms than during the week. A limit order with a fixed price protects you from paying more than you intended.
Second, the licence. Since the end of 2024 the EU crypto regulation MiCA has been in force. Providers serving customers in Germany need authorisation as a crypto-asset service provider. Which exchanges hold such a licence and what they charge for buying in euros is shown in our comparison of crypto exchanges. If you do not want to bet on a particular moment, you can spread your entry over a savings plan, which takes the question of the right day out of the equation.
Leverage in Extreme Fear: at 10x, liquidation sits at around $68,600
If you trade Bitcoin with leverage, do the maths particularly carefully at the weekend. A long position with tenfold leverage opened at $75,800 is, in simplified terms, forcibly closed at around $68,600. With fivefold leverage, this liquidation level is around $61,000. Depending on the exchange and the maintenance margin, it sits somewhat higher; the exact figure is shown in the provider's position overview.
The 200-day moving average at $73,189 is only 3.4 percent below the current price, and the liquidation level at 10x just under 10 percent. If the 200-day line breaks in thin weekend trading, part of that distance can be covered quickly. Which brokers offer leveraged products with loss limits is shown in our comparison of crypto brokers.
Bitcoin in extreme fear: our assessment and the evidence
Our assessment: sentiment is worse than the situation. One argument for this is that the Fear and Greed Index has fallen from 50 to 25, while the price has given up only around 6 percent from Thursday's high. Another is the Deribit funding rate of 0.0019 percent: there are no overleveraged long positions that would have to be unwound in a wave if losses deepened. And Friday's low at $74,722 held on the day of the US jobs report.
The trend argues against it. Bitcoin is below both the 50-day and the 100-day moving average, and the look back at May shows that extreme fear at almost the same price of $76,767 once before turned into an 18 percent decline. As long as the price does not return above $77,060, the recovery is not confirmed. If it falls below $73,189, the long-term trend would be broken for the first time in weeks.
This assessment is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Cryptocurrencies can be highly volatile, and a total loss is possible.
Bitcoin on a fearful Saturday: below $74,722 it gets tight
Check how you buy: if you want to get in, use an exchange with a MiCA licence and a limit order. Provider costs are listed in the exchange comparison. Settle the holding period before midnight: purchases from November 7, 2025 become tax-free from Sunday, and their loss then no longer counts for tax purposes. The tools in the tax tool comparison keep track of purchase dates. Spread your entry: if you do not want to time the market, buy in fixed instalments. Providers of Bitcoin savings plans are listed in the savings plan comparison.(As of November 7, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)
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