Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek Power Through Brutal Australian Open Draws With a Final Showdown on the Horizon

The Australian Open is about to explode with energy. Temperatures could hit 40°C in Melbourne, but that’s not the only thing turning up the heat. The world’s top two women, Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek, are ready to fight for glory. Both are chasing a statement title, both hungry to prove they can rule the court in 2026. But the path to the final is no cake walk for both of them.

The World No.1 begins her title defense against wildcard Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah. The Belarusian owns a blistering 83.8% win rate on hard courts over the last 52 weeks. But even with that edge, the challenge ahead won’t be easy. Should she move past the opener, a familiar opponent like Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova could await.

Their rivalry is dead even at 2-2, trading clay and hard-court wins, with Sabalenka’s most recent triumph coming in the 2025 Australian Open quarterfinals. The early rounds don’t let up either. In round three, she could meet 28th seed Emma Raducanu, who trails their head-to-head 0-2 after recent major defeats that showcased Sabalenka’s baseline power.

Things heat up further in round four, where Clara Tauson or Victoria Mboko might appear. Tauson shares a 1-1 record with Aryna, and Mboko, the young Canadian who shocked Naomi Osaka at last year’s Canadian 1000 and is climbing fast. With Aryna Sabalenka fresh off a Brisbane title and a 9-1 record in her last ten matches, she’s starting strong.

Aryna Sabalenka’s possible path to the Australian Open title

R1 – Rakotomanga Rajaonah

R2 – Pavlyuchenkova/ Qualifier

R3 – Raducanu / Potapova / Lamens

R4 – Tauson / Mboko

QF – Paolini / Alexandrova / Kostyuk / Jovic / Haddad Maia

SF – Gauff / Andreeva / Svitolina /… pic.twitter.com/AsKimmKq2r

— The Tennis Letter (@TheTennisLetter) January 15, 2026

The quarterfinal road looks stacked: Jasmine Paolini, Ekaterina Alexandrova, Marta Kostyuk, Iva Jovic, and Beatriz Haddad Maia. From that bunch, Paolini stands out as a challenge. Although Sabalenka has beaten her six times in eight encounters, including three wins last season. Alexandrova holds a 4-4 tie with the top seed, while Kostyuk, who fell to Aryna in the 2026 Brisbane final, will seek revenge even as she trails 0-5.

All that leads to a fiery semifinal scenario. Coco Gauff could be waiting. Their rivalry is balanced at 6-6, and after Gauff’s 2025 Roland Garros final win over Sabalenka, this rematch would be electric. Also lurking are Mirra Andreeva, who stunned Aryna Sabalenka at Indian Wells, Karolina Muchova, who leads 3-2, Elina Svitolina, and Emma Navarro, each capable of an upset.

Iga Swiatek, meanwhile, kicks off her run against either a qualifier or lucky loser. In round two, she’ll likely face Marie Bouzkova or Renata Zarazua. Bouzkova has already lost twice to Swiatek, once at the 2025 China Open and earlier at Roland Garros 2024, while Zarazua would be a fresh test for the Pole.

The next rounds bring more firepower: Anna Kalinskaya, Sonay Kartal, or Elisabetta Cocciaretto could all appear in round three. Kalinskaya trails 1-2 in their rivalry but continues to rise after a strong 2025. Swiatek handled Cocciaretto in their last and only clash at the 2025 Italian Open, while Kartal remains an unknown challenge.

Her quarterfinals may be the toughest part of the draw, featuring Elena Rybakina, Belinda Bencic, Maya Joint, Elise Mertens, and Daria Kasatkina. Rybakina has split their head-to-head 4-4, her serve and flat pace a genuine threat. Bencic trails 1-3, while Joint, Mertens, and Kasatkina (1-6) each carry recent winning form and the potential to push Iga deep into rallies.

If Iga goes all the way, she might face Americans Jessica Pegula, Amanda Anisimova, or Madison Keys, or Spaniard Paula Badosa in the semis. Pegula trails 3-5 but thrives on counterpunching and form. Anisimova’s resurgent power promises danger, Keys’ fast-court firepower looms, and Badosa’s serve adds chaos.

Should Swiatek and Sabalenka survive these trials, they’ll meet in the finals. Their 5-8 head-to-head swings in Iga’s favor, but Sabalenka’s two AO titles and hard-court dominance at Rod Laver Arena make this a highly anticipated battle. The best result from the Pole has been the semifinals in 2019 and 2025, where she lost to the eventual champion, Madison Keys.

Not to mention, for Iga, it’s a shot at her career Slam. But for Aryna, it’s redemption and potential title No.3 in Melbourne. However, despite the stakes of the tournament, both players are coming in with some refreshing perspectives.

What’s on Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek’s minds ahead of AO?

On one hand, Sabalenka has wasted no time making headlines in 2026. The Belarusian stormed through Brisbane once again, defending her International title for the second straight year. Fresh off that victory, she’s already in Melbourne, ready to chase more history at the Australian Open.

Last season, Sabalenka came heartbreakingly close to becoming the first woman since Martina Hingis to claim three consecutive Australian Opens, but was stopped in the final by Madison Keys. Still, revenge isn’t on her mind. She seems fully focused on the present, not the past.

“It doesn’t matter which tournament it is,” Sabalenka said in Brisbane. “If I’m defending champion, if I lost in the first round last year, the goal is always the same — to bring my best tennis and to improve my game. Honestly, that’s it. I always just focus on myself, on developing my game, and making sure that I’m 100 percent there.”

Meanwhile, Iga Swiatek has had a bumpier start to the season. The Polish world No. 1 fell 6-3, 0-6, 3-6 to Switzerland’s Belinda Bencic in the United Cup final in Sydney last Sunday. That defeat came right after a flat 4-6, 2-6 loss to Coco Gauff in the semifinals. Two consecutive losses are almost unheard of for Swiatek.

A frustrated Swiatek dropped seven games in a row against Bencic and even lost a rare set to love. There were tears, a racquet toss, and a clear sign of just how much the match stung. Her back-to-back defeats echoed memories of the WTA Finals in Riyadh last November, where she fell to Rybakina and  Anisimova, her first consecutive losses since 2021.

“Everything is fine,” she said after the United Cup final. “I think it was a mix of me losing the intensity, and I wasn’t feeling so sharp with movements and with my legs. I wasn’t so precise any more physically I would say.”

But with the threat to improve her Australian Open result looming, Swiatek doesn’t have much time to sharpen her edges. After 36 unforced errors to Bencic’s 10, she knows there’s work to do.

“We’re going to work now to improve some elements that didn’t work this week,” she said. “Still not a lot of time for that if I also want to have some recovery days. This is how tennis is. You got to go with the flow. We’ll see.”

Now, with the Australian Open starting on Sunday, the only question left is, who’s lifting that trophy this time?

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