5687-YD QB Becomes Heisman Favorite as John Mateer Injured for Over 3 Weeks

An X post by On3 on September 23 featured the updated BetMGM College Football Heisman Trophy odds following the news of Oklahoma John Mateer’s injury. According to the polls after Week 4, Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza topped the list with +650 odds, with Oregon’s Dante Moore and Miami’s Carson Beck following in tow with +1200 odds each. Not bad company, but the Hoosiers QB’s resume makes the separation obvious. 

NEW: Updated @BetMGM College Football Heisman Trophy odds after the John Mateer injury news

Who you got? https://t.co/R57vft2KeU https://t.co/JHTKfCpDVq pic.twitter.com/MESCGiwFlN

— On3 (@On3sports) September 23, 2025

Starting his season in Cal in 2023, Fernando Mendoza has already racked up 5,687 yards and 44 TDs through two complete seasons and four weeks into 2025 with Curt Cignetti’s squad. The question is, can anyone slow him down before the voters crown him?

Meanwhile, in Norman, the story couldn’t be more different. John Mateer fell out of the top ten, not even the three consolation prizes with +2000 odds. In this game, one missed snap can cost you. And for the Sooners’ QB, the prognosis looks grim. According to a CFB insider’s injury report via SoonerScoop, “John Mateer will have thumb surgery and could miss 3 weeks or more.” It’s the cruelest truth of college football. Momentum doesn’t wait for you to heal.

So here we are, one QB’s rise fueled by stats and spotlight, another’s fall dictated by the harsh math of injuries. The Heisman is about availability. And right now, Mendoza has both. But will this narrative hold when November pressure arrives? That’s the drama voters and fans live for.

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