What happened to the Red Wings? Three factors behind Detroit’s collapse

Now that the Buffalo Sabres have finally ended their 14-season (and NHL-record) playoff drought, a new team has ascended to the top of that dubious list: the Detroit Red Wings. 

It has been nine seasons since the Red Wings qualified for the playoffs, a once unfathomable streak for a franchise that made it for 25 consecutive seasons from 1990-91 to 2015-16 (and won four Stanley Cup titles over that stretch). 

And it could soon become 10 seasons. 

Detroit’s odds of clinching a playoff berth, which were at nearly 82 per cent when play restarted after the Olympics, are now down to 11.5 per cent with five games left. Despite rallying from a 4-1 deficit against the Minnesota Wild on Sunday, the Red Wings’ 5-4 loss was their sixth in eight games (2-6-0) and 12th in 19 games since the Olympic break (7-10-2). 

“There’s teams that are elevating right now, and there’s teams that aren’t,” Red Wings coach Todd McLellan recently told reporters. “And right now, we’re one of them that aren’t.”

Here are three reasons why the Red Wings have sputtered down the stretch: 

Dylan Larkin hampered by injury 

On March 6, Red Wings captain Dylan Larkin suffered an apparent leg injury that sidelined him for seven games. It is obvious that Larkin, who has four points in seven games since returning to the lineup, is still dealing with the effects of the injury. 

The swift-skating Larkin has been less dynamic over the past two weeks. He is averaging 13.8 possession-driving plays, such as red-line carries and controlled entries, per 20 minutes since March 24. That is down from his pre-injury average of 18.7 possession-driving plays per 20. 

Larkin’s slot-driving plays (carries and passes) are also down from 4.16 per 20 to 2.48 since he re-entered Detroit’s lineup. He has recorded just four scoring chances off the rush in his past seven games. 

Detroit has been losing Larkin’s minutes rather decisively since his return, generating only 33.1 per cent of the expected goals and getting outscored 4-1 at five-on-five. By comparison, the Red Wings had a 49.3 xGF% with Larkin on the ice before his injury. 

Larkin deserves credit for clearly playing through injury, but the Red Wings face an uphill climb with a diminished version of their captain. 

“It’s clear he’s not 100 per cent, the way he’s skating,” McLellan told reporters last week. “Yet there’s some situations that he has to play better. If you’re going to put the gear on, you have to be (really) good and positionally sound. So we expect that from him. We’ll have to manage him a little bit with situations and minutes, but when he is out there, we have to expect the best (from) him.”

No finish at five-on-five 

The Red Wings have had a finishing problem at five-on-five all season. They have left 18.5 goals on the table based on their shot quality, which ranks 27th in the league. 

Earlier this season, the Red Wings were victims of bad luck; Detroit was ninth in expected goals per 60 minutes and 27th in actual goals per 60 at five-on-five through the end of November 2025. But since Dec. 1, 2025, the Red Wings’ offence ranks 30th in five-on-five expected goals per 60. 

Even after scoring four times at five-on-five Sunday, Detroit has just 33 such goals (2.14 per 60) in 19 games since the Olympic break. Only the Toronto Maple Leafs (32) and Vancouver Canucks (31) have fewer in that span. 

The Red Wings have gotten away from what fuelled their offence early in the season, specifically generating scoring chances off the rush and getting the puck to the slot. (Larkin’s injury has certainly had an impact on that over the past month.)

As fate would have it, Red Wings defenceman Albert Johansson opened the scoring Sunday against the Wild with a rush goal at five-on-five, and forward Patrick Kane tied the game off the rush in the third period. Time is running out, however, for the Red Wings to find their scoring touch. 

Penalty-killing problems 

Wild forward Kirill Kaprizov clinched Minnesota’s win against Detroit on Sunday with a scorching one-timer from the right circle. The Red Wings’ penalty kill, which is operating at a 69.6 per cent clip over the past 19 games, has damaged their playoff chances. Four of the game-winning goals scored against Detroit since the Olympics have come on the power play. 

Opponents have averaged 48 seconds of offensive-zone possession time per two minutes against Detroit since Feb. 25 (31st). That is partially because the Red Wings have successfully dumped out the puck on only 61 per cent of their clearing attempts over that span — by far the worst rate in the league. 

On Sunday, Red Wings defenceman Ben Chiarot’s failed dump-out attempt allowed the Wild to maintain their pressure on the power play late in the game. Kaprizov scored a few moments later. 

All stats via Sportlogiq

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