Trump Copied Orban’s Playbook. Now Both Wannabe Strongmen Are in Trouble  

Visiting Hungary last year, I was surprised to learn that the vaunted playbook operationalized by Viktor Orban for dismantling democracy—mimicked by President Donald Trump—had, after years, led to the wheels coming off the economy and society. The Hungarian public was turning against Orban. Now, this month, Orban, the European Union’s longest-serving head of state, could be ousted in parliamentary elections on April 12, despite JD Vance jetting to Budapest this week to help save the administration’s ally. 

Back during my visit, it was irresistible to ask if the same fate might await President Donald Trump if he stuck with Orbanesque authoritarian policies. But I did not expect the turn to come so soon. Trump has done in 15 months what took Viktor Orban 10 years—alienate the public by failing to deliver on promises to lower prices and improve the economy, and by starting a war that Americans overwhelmingly oppose. As in Hungary, Americans hold the president responsible for declining living standards, rising prices, gutted health care and education systems–alongside rampant corruption, enriching wealthy friends and family while regular people suffer. 

Both Trump and Orban face decisive elections: the Congressional midterms for Trump and the national elections for Orban. Elections in which currently both Democrats in the U.S., and Orban’s rival Péter Magyar and his Tisza Party are running well ahead in the polls. 

For years, public tolerance for Orban and his Fidesz party seemed endless. His unraveling democracy and endemic corruption were masked (or tolerated) because money flowed into Hungary as it joined the European Union. The resulting economic growth made the public feel that “Orban delivers.”  

Now the public is ready to turn on Orban and his kleptocracy. Polling by the independent Hungarian research firm Policy Solutions found large majorities now associate 15 years of Orban’s Fidesz party rule with the deterioration of health care (67 percent); a growing gap between the rich and poor (63 percent), deterioration of the education system (63 percent), and worsening of the economy (57 percent). Majorities hold Orban responsible for corruption (60 percent) and a decline in Hungary’s international stature (58 percent). With just days until the election, most recent polls show Orban’s party trailing by close to 10 points in the polls nationally, as well as in in key contested constituencies  

Trump and his allies closely follow Orban’s script: intimidating and co-opting independent branches of government (like judges, law firms, and financial and regulatory watchdog agencies and organizations), politicizing universities, stifling media dissent, and rewarding cronies with government largess, especially favored tech moguls.  

The Trump administration’s helter-skelter dismantling of government services and spasmodic, economically damaging trade policies mean there has been no positive news to mask the erosion of living standards. The reality of U.S. voters’ lived experience was hammered home in special and off-year elections since January 2025 as both moderate and progressive Democrats won big on their affordability message. The war in Iran, with its spike in oil prices, hasn’t helped Trump. 

According to the most recent polling, Trump’s approval rating has hit a new low of 35 percent, while his disapproval rating reached a second-term high of more than  60 percent. His approval rating for handling the economy has fallen to a new career low of 31 percent. The President’s net approval rating on the economy has hovered at -20 in recent months. Net approval rating for net inflation is even lower at -34. Only three in ten adults approve of his handling of health care (31 percent in October). Combined with a similar distaste for rampant corruption (today, four out of five Americans think the federal government is corrupt, and a majority believe the Trump family is corrupt), the Orban-Trump playbook seems to be a recipe for personal enrichment and public alienation. 

Both candidates are trying to change the subject from their job performance. Orban is trying to make his election a referendum on pulling back support for Ukraine and Kyiv’s EU bid—a campaign that includes disinformation (like claiming his opponent is an EU pawn and will drag Hungary into the war). Trump keeps trying to deflect attention from the economy and Jeffrey Epstein by talking about … anything else: from finding Jimmy Hoffa, to attacking Venezuela, to now waging a muddled war against Iran, to investigating Democratic Congressional war heroes for sedition as they remind U.S. service members that they must follow the law and Constitution. 

Both leaders could try to rig the next crucial elections: Trump with efforts to end mail-in voting, send troops to intimidate voters at the polls, and redistricting maneuvers of questionable legality. Orban is proposing additional changes to the electoral system, which has been modified 30+ times since he came to power to favor himself and his Fidesz party.  

Whether successful or not, it is refreshing to see democracy alive and kicking in Hungary and the United States. When government of the people, by the people, and for the people is comprised, the people still look to hold leaders accountable and run them out.  

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