Toy Story 5 Is Set to Make History Amid Final Box Office Forecast

The much-anticipated sequel Toy Story 5 is on track to make box office history for an animated film this decade. A pair of box office predictions project that the Pixar film will have an incredible domestic start that is higher than the $140 million from traditional studio tracking. This is great news for Pixar, which has struggled over the last few years with Turning Red, Elemental, Elio, and the Toy Story spinoff Lightyear. However, this latest outing from the studio is looking like it will meet or beat the success of 2024’s Inside Out 2 and continue the momentum from Hoppers that released in March this year. Toy Story 5 officially releases nationwide on Friday, July 19, but several theaters are offering early screenings on June 18.

Toy Story 5’s domestic opener could surpass Inside Out 2’s

One final box office forecast for Toy Story 5 has the film earning somewhere between $160 million to $175 million in its domestic opening weekend from July 19 to July 21. This is a slight reduction from an earlier range of $165 million to $185 million, but it’s still a formidable estimate.

This weekend prediction comes from a July 17 report from BoxOffice Pro, which is slightly more optimistic than the $158 million to $180 million range from BoxOfficeTheory. If these projections hold, Toy Story 5 would have the highest domestic opener for any animated film in the 2020s over Inside Out 2’s $154.2 million, in addition to the highest for any movie in 2026 so far past The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s $131.7 million. It would also place it third on the all-time list for a domestic start for an animated film, just below The Lion King’s $191.8 million and Incredibles 2’s $182.7 million.

As for Toy Story 5’s full domestic run, the June 13 report from BoxOfficeTheory predicts that it will bring in a whopping $516 million; that is, on the lower end of a $501 million to $615 million range. That would be rather impressive, as it would blow past Zootopia 2’s $428 million domestic haul ($1.86 billion worldwide). On the flipside, this would be lower than Inside Out 2’s $652 million domestic total ($1.69 billion worldwide), so the film has some worthy competition.

According to Variety, the Pixar juggernaut carries an equally gargantuan budget of $250 million without factoring in marketing and advertising costs. If we follow the general rule that movies need to earn 2.5 times its budget to break even, it will need to cross the $575 million mark to make a profit. That said, this is an underestimate for Disney specifically, as it likely has higher expectations for a franchise that’s considered animation royalty. Star Wars: The Mandalorian & Grogu has a budget of $144 million (after California tax credits), but The Hollywood Reporter says sources close to Disney need it to earn $500 million to $600 million to be profitable, a figure well past the 2.5x threshold (which would be $360 million in this case).

One advantage that Toy Story 5 has over other animated films is its strategic release on a double-holiday weekend, with Friday sales likely to be boosted due to Juneteenth and overall weekend sales likely to get a lift for Father’s Day. The sequel provides a safe, familiar, family-friendly option for casual moviegoers near the start of the summer break. Pre-sales for the film have been robust as well, particularly for IMAX and other premium formats, which should increase its opening numbers overall.

As of June 18, the film has a superb 95% critics rating on Rotten Tomatoes based on 146 reviews, so it should have positive word-of-mouth and broad appeal from kids and adults. Toy Story 5 sees the return of star-studded cast featuring Buzz Lightyear (Tim Allen), Woody (Tom Hanks), and Jessie (Joan Cosack) as they fight against the influence of the frog tablet Lilypad (Greta Lee), a concern that remains relevant as parents attempt to curtail the negative effects of children being hooked on screens.

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