Tomorrow’s elections are about far more than Keir Starmer’s future

The Prime Minister is facing plenty of speculation about his future, but today’s elections will have an impact on millions of people. (Picture: Getty)

This is an exclusive from Craig Munro and is featured in Metro’s politics newsletter Alright Gov? The newsletter delivers exclusive analysis and more to your inbox every week.

First, it was the Runcorn and Helsby by-election, alongside the May 2025 local elections. Then, it was the fallout from the sacking of Lord Mandelson as ambassador to the US. Then, it was February’s by-election in Gorton and Denton. And now…

Yes, welcome to the latest episode of ‘Can Sir Keir Starmer Possibly Survive This?’

In the lead-up to the crucial elections taking place tomorrow, we’ve seen all the familiar hits in the media. Potential leadership contenders reportedly shoring up support; backbenchers reportedly drawing up plans to strike; the PM reportedly preparing to fight for his life.

Maybe this time the coup will happen. Maybe he’ll be able to ride this one out too. We won’t know until we’re on the other side of the election – and you’ve got to admit, it’s all become a little repetitive in the meantime.

Because there’s much more at stake than the Prime Minister’s future when Scotland, Wales and England go to vote on Thursday… particularly for the first two.

You’ll often hear Starmer-adjacent people talking about how he was elected with a five-year mandate, and he’ll be judged on whether he’s got the country on the right track when the next general election rolls around in 2029.

In this vision of politics, all the votes that happen in the interim are mere mood-testers on the road to the big event.

But the Senedd and Holyrood are real parliaments making real decisions that affect millions of people, and tomorrow’s results will be baked in for five years.

Scottish First Minister John Swinney of the Scottish National Party campaigning in Fort William this week. (Picture: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty)

Westminster-heads might look at national polling and see Reform’s support appears to be stalling, if not declining slowly from its heights last autumn. They might suggest it’s possible one of the other parties gets a boost in the next couple of years and Farage fever will dim forever.

Perhaps that’s true – but it won’t be much comfort for Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader who was riding high in the Holyrood polls in June 2024 before Starmer made a hash of his first months in office.

Nor will it offer any reassurance to Eluned Morgan, whose Welsh Labour was similarly popular before the national party took power. Like Sarwar, she’s seen her support plummet in the past two years while Reform has continued to climb.

Polls now suggest Reform in Scotland, led by former Conservative peer Malcolm Offord, could become the largest opposition party – effectively replacing the Scottish Tories as the right-wing voice north of the border.

And it’s looking like the Senedd results will be truly historic, with Labour on track to not only end its 104-year streak as the largest party in Wales but also to land in a distant third place behind Plaid Cymru and Reform.

As politicians like to remind us around this time, individual polls tell a very limited story and the final vote is the only one that matters.

So, there will be a lot more to say about this on May 8, of course – but we’d do well to remember these results will matter to many more people than just Sir Keir Starmer.

Get in touch with our news team by emailing us at [email protected].

For more stories like this, check our news page.

Comments Add as preferred source