The Week Ahead: Big Tech Earnings, Fed Rate Decision and Oil Markets Move in Focus

TLDR

The Federal Reserve meets Tuesday and Wednesday, with rates expected to hold at 3.5%–3.75%, though a hike remains possible Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Apple all report earnings this week, with AI spending under scrutiny Alphabet beat expectations last week but its stock fell after it raised AI infrastructure spending forecasts Oil prices dropped to around $91 a barrel Monday after signs of a temporary pause in US-Iran fighting Core PCE inflation data and GDP figures are due Thursday, giving the Fed fresh data before any future rate decisions

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The biggest week of the earnings season is here. Four of the world’s largest tech companies report results, the Federal Reserve makes its latest rate call, and oil markets are reacting to developments in the Middle East.

Investors will be watching all of it closely.

The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday. Markets currently price a 66% chance that rates stay unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%. But there is roughly a one-in-three chance of a hike, according to current wagers.

Source: Forex Factory

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is not expected to push for a rate increase. However, some members of the committee may back an immediate hike, Reuters reported.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank described the decision as “unusually finely balanced,” pointing to rising energy prices and Middle East supply risks as complications for the inflation outlook.

Big Tech AI Spending in the Spotlight

Microsoft and Meta report Wednesday after the closing bell. Amazon and Apple follow on Thursday. Together, these four companies make up 17% of the S&P 500.

E-Mini S&P 500 Sep 26 (ES=F)

The numbers themselves matter, but investors are more focused on what these companies plan to spend on artificial intelligence. Data centers, chips and AI infrastructure are costing tens of billions of dollars across the sector.

Last week, Alphabet beat earnings expectations but its stock fell after it raised its projected AI spending. That sent a warning to the rest of the market.

#earnings for the week of July 27, 2026https://t.co/hLn2sKQhEY$MSFT $AAPL $AMZN $META $BE $SOFI $BSX $APLD $STX $ENPH $VRT $PYPL $HOOD $ORLY $ARM $QCOM $NVTS $KLAC $RBLX $BA $RDDT $V $AXTI $CLS $LRCX $BMY $XOM $NUE $CI $AZN $MA $KO $CMG $RMBS $BKR $TER $TLRY $UPS $AEM $CAR… pic.twitter.com/81BIMJEwBX

— Earnings Whispers (@eWhispers) July 24, 2026

Meta is reportedly exploring a cloud computing business to sell excess compute capacity. Amazon recently raised prices on hardware rentals used to train and run AI models. Apple shares hit record highs earlier this month on excitement around new devices and a potential AI chip acquisition.

Analysts at Vital Knowledge warned that rising capital expenditures could eventually outpace operating cash flows, and that capital markets are starting to push back on new debt and equity issuance.

Oil Prices Drop on Iran Pause

Oil prices fell sharply to start the week, dropping to around $91 a barrel on Monday.

The move came after reports that President Trump halted US strikes on Iran to preserve military stockpiles in the region. Iran also signaled it would not carry out strikes as long as US bombing does not restart.

Last week, Brent crude briefly crossed $100 a barrel after Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea raised fears of wider supply disruptions.

Whether the pause leads to a formal ceasefire is still unclear.

Beyond the Fed and tech earnings, Visa reports Tuesday. Qualcomm and Arm Holdings report Wednesday. The core PCE inflation reading and GDP data for the second quarter are both due Thursday.

By the end of the week, roughly one-third of S&P 500 companies will have reported, with earnings on track to rise 26.5% compared to a year ago.

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