[Predicted 20 yeas ago]: 'Tehran’s trump card' (4/23/06)

ArchivedCLIFFORD KUPCHAN is a director at Eurasia Group, a political risk consulting firm.IRAN’S KEY ALLY in the current nuclear crisis is not Russia or China. It’s oil. Tehran can easily drive up prices and is already beginning to do so to rattle the West. As the crisis escalates, Washington’s diplomatic partners will become gravely worried about their energy supplies. In the end, Iran’s petro power will probably trump Western diplomacy. Just look at what’s happening: Tehran’s bravado announcement April 11 that it had mastered key nuclear technology drew censure from world capitals. But it also drove oil prices to more...