ETH Slides After No Iran Deal: On-Chain Data Says the Real Pressure Is Just Starting

Key Takeaways

What the Chart Shows

Ethereum dropped from a session high of $2,325 to a low of $2,212 on the largest bearish volume bar since April 8, breaking the 50 SMA at $2,242 for the first time since the ceasefire rally began. The SMA was rising support throughout the recovery. It is now overhead resistance sitting $30 above current price.

The RSI at 37.12 is approaching oversold territory. The signal line at 45.44 remains significantly higher, a gap that wide means momentum has collapsed faster than the average can track. The most recent candle shows volume at 2.78K, the selling pressure has eased but buyers have not stepped in with conviction.

The $2,175-$2,180 support is the level that decides what comes next. It held twice during the post-ceasefire pullbacks on April 9 and April 10. It has not been tested today. At the current pace of the session, that test is coming before it closes.

What the Holder Data Shows

The CryptoQuant unrealized profit and loss chart by cohort shows something more significant than the price action alone. As of April 10, every major ETH holder cohort, addresses holding 100K+ ETH, 10K-100K ETH, and 1K-10K ETH, is sitting at near-zero unrealized profit simultaneously. The bars across all three groups are essentially flat at the baseline.

The cohort that stands out is the 10K-100K group. Those addresses appear marginally negative, meaning mid-tier whales are already underwater on their positions. That matters because holders in loss behave differently from holders at breakeven. They have an incentive to sell before the loss deepens rather than wait for recovery. The 100K+ cohort, the largest holders, remains slightly positive, meaning those addresses have not yet been pushed into loss. That distinction between the two groups is where the near-term selling pressure is most likely to originate.

The last time this configuration appeared across all cohorts simultaneously was during the 2022 bear market, when all groups went from breakeven to deeply negative as ETH fell from $3,000 to $900. The near-zero reading also appeared briefly in mid-2021 before the second bull leg drove all cohorts back into significant profit. Two historical precedents. Opposite outcomes.

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What Both Datasets Say Together

The broken 50 SMA and the near-zero holder P&L are not separate observations. They are describing the same moment from different angles. The chart shows the technical structure weakening after the macro catalyst was removed. The on-chain data shows the financial position of the holders who will determine whether the structure recovers or breaks.

When holders are at breakeven and the chart is below key support, the path of least resistance is a test of the next level down before any recovery attempt. The 50 SMA break adds selling pressure from participants using that level as a stop. The mid-tier whale cohort already in loss adds selling pressure from holders trying to limit damage. Neither of those pressures disappears until $2,175 is either tested and holds, resetting the support narrative, or broken, at which point the 2022 precedent becomes the more relevant historical comparison.

The $2,175-$2,180 level is not just a technical support. It is the line that separates the two historical outcomes the on-chain data currently makes equally possible.

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