California Gasoline Supply Outlook: A Disaster in the Making

California’s gasoline market is entering a period of acute supply shortages directly attributable to prior refinery closures, and the long-term systemic decline in in-state crude oil production which have been further exacerbated by the ongoing war in the Middle East. For California, there is a clear trajectory toward increasing supply deficit conditions through April and a high probability of physical shortages by May accompanied by consumer price increases at the pump.