Bitcoin Records Longest Profit Streak Since October, 200 MA is only $1,980 Away

Nine Days Above the Line That Matters

Bitcoin’s Adjusted SOPR has remained above 1 for 9 consecutive days since May 1. The metric measures whether coins moving on-chain are doing so at a profit or a loss. Above 1 means the average spent output is realizing a gain. Below 1 means the market is processing coins at a loss. CryptoQuant analyst Carmelo Alemán identified the significance of duration: a single day above 1 can be noise, but 9 consecutive days reduces that possibility and confirms the shift is sustained.

The last time Bitcoin produced a comparable sequence was October 19 to November 4, 2025. That run began when BTC was trading near $67,000. What followed over the subsequent weeks was the advance toward the cycle high near $100,000. The current 9-day sequence started May 1 with BTC near $79,000. The on-chain conditions that preceded the largest move of the prior cycle are now present again, and they are 9 days old.

Long-Term Holders Are Outpacing Short-Term Traders

A second on-chain metric confirms the same structural shift from a different angle. The LTH/STH SOPR Ratio, tracked by analyst Adler AM on CryptoQuant, currently reads 1.13 against a 90-day SMA benchmark of 0.982. A reading above 1.0 means long-term holders are realizing stronger profits relative to short-term holders. The ratio spent February through late March 2026 below 1.0, meaning short-term traders were the more profitable cohort during that period. The recovery to 1.13 represents a structural reversal in who is controlling realized gains.

The risk embedded in this reading is specific. A ratio rising rapidly toward historically elevated levels has preceded aggressive LTH distribution in prior cycles. At 1.13, the current reading is elevated but not extreme. The 90-day SMA at 0.982 is still below 1.0, meaning the longer-term trend in this ratio has not yet confirmed the shift. The current reading is a leading signal, not a confirmed structural change in the longer baseline.

Three Rising MAs and $1,600 of Cushion Below

On the four-hour chart, Bitcoin’s structure is unambiguously bullish. The 50 MA sits at $80,150, the 100 MA at $78,719, and the 200 MA at $76,417: all three trending upward and stacked below current price at $80,768.

Price rejected from the $82,000 area during the May 4-5 highs on the four-hour chart and has consolidated between $79,000 and $81,000 since. The four-hour RSI at 54.86 with the signal line at 51.69 shows positive but uncommitted momentum. There is room to move before the four-hour structure reaches overbought conditions.

The four-hour MA structure provides a layered support map for any pullback. A dip toward $80,150 tests the 50 MA. A deeper move toward $78,719 tests the 100 MA. Only a break below the rising 200 MA at $76,417 would structurally damage the short-term trend. None of those levels are under immediate pressure at current price.

One Ceiling Left, and It Is Declining Toward Price

The one-day chart tells a more complicated story. Bitcoin’s daily 50 MA sits at $73,893 and the daily 100 MA at $71,728, both well below current price and both confirming the recovery from the February lows is structurally intact. The daily 200 MA at $82,747 sits $1,980 above current price and is declining. It is the only remaining overhead resistance visible on the one-day chart, and it is the level where the prior recovery attempt stalled before the selloff resumed.

The daily RSI at 64.24 with the signal line at 61.80 is elevated and approaching the zone where prior rejections occurred during the March and April recovery attempts. That does not mean rejection is imminent. In October 2025, the daily RSI sustained above 65 for weeks before the cycle high. But the combination of a declining 200 MA at $82,747 and a daily RSI approaching its prior rejection range creates a specific and measurable test point. The on-chain data says the market can absorb it. The one-day chart says the market has not proven it yet.

Why the Bear Case Deserves a Full Reading

The counter-argument centers on the aSOPR reading itself. At 1.001, the metric is barely above the 1.0 threshold. Nine days of marginal profitability is not the same as nine days of strong profitability. The long-term aSOPR chart shows the metric spent the entire period from December 2025 through April 2026 oscillating near or below 1.0 without producing a sustained recovery. Multiple prior attempts to hold above 1.0 failed within days. The current sequence is the longest since October 2025, but it is being sustained at a level that represents minimal average profit, not a confident market. If the daily 200 MA at $82,747 produces a rejection and price falls back below $78,000, aSOPR will likely drop back below 1.0 and the 9-day sequence ends without confirming the structural recovery the October comparable implies.

Signals That Confirm or Cancel

What will confirm the case is a daily close above $82,747.35, the one-day 200 MA, sustained for two consecutive daily candles within the next ten days, with aSOPR remaining above 1.0 through that move. That sequence confirms both the technical breakout and the on-chain support are aligned, and opens the next range above $84,000.

Two consecutive daily closes of aSOPR below 1.0 within the next seven days invalidates the 9-day sequence and returns the market to loss-realization territory regardless of price level. That is the on-chain signal that matters more than any specific price level.

The October-November 2025 comparable is the most important reference in this data set. Not because history repeats exactly, but because the conditions that produced it, aSOPR sustained above 1.0, LTH/STH ratio recovering above its SMA, price below the daily 200 MA, are present again in the same configuration. The daily 200 MA at $82,747 is where that comparison gets confirmed or rejected.

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