The month has earned the nickname “Uptober” for a reason. Since 2013, Bitcoin has logged green closes almost every October, sometimes with eye-watering jumps like the 48% surge in 2017 or the 40% climb in 2021. At current levels near $112,500, even a fraction of that performance could push the asset closer to $165,000 before November.

Bulls Betting on Policy and Liquidity

Optimists point to macro conditions as the trigger. Futures markets place the probability of another Federal Reserve rate cut in October above 90%. Traders argue that easier monetary policy provides the liquidity digital assets thrive on, setting the stage for a powerful rebound.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, added his own reasoning: the U.S. Treasury has nearly finished its recent round of cash hoarding, and once that pressure eases, he believes crypto will flip into “up only” mode.

Not Everyone Buys the Hype

Yet caution is thick in the air. Analysts at SignalPlus argue that low volatility and slowing capital inflows suggest rallies will be capped. BTSE’s Jeff Mei also noted that September’s market slide has been unusually mild, which in his view makes the odds of a classic Uptober surge less convincing. Still, he conceded that if Washington takes more aggressive steps to stimulate the economy, sentiment could change quickly.

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Monday’s Market Slide

All this debate comes against the backdrop of fresh weakness. On Monday morning, Bitcoin slipped to roughly $114,000, its lowest point in nearly two weeks, wiping out $80 billion in crypto market value. Ethereum followed with a sharp 4% drop below $4,300.

Whether October writes another chapter in Bitcoin’s long history of autumn rallies or proves to be the exception will hinge on these competing forces – a tug-of-war between liquidity optimism and macroeconomic caution.

The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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