Bitcoin Is on a Reversal Path But The Test is Still Ahead: Key Levels to Watch Now

Downtrend Shifts Into Early Reversal

On the daily chart over the past seven months, we can clearly see a downtrend from the all-time high in October, which was reached above $125,000.

However, in recent days, a mini uptrend has started to form, breaking the resistance of the broader downtrend. At the same time, price has moved above the 50MA, while still sitting below the 100MA and attempting to break above it as well.

Volume Signals: Panic Selling Followed by Accumulation

This leads to the thesis that the $59,000–$60,000 level reached in February may have been the bottom. As seen on the volume bars, there is a large selling candle followed by a strong green candle. This usually signals massive panic selling, followed by bulls aggressively buying the dip.

After that, volume declines, which suggests that sellers are already exhausted. Typically, this drop in volatility is a sign of accumulation by investors.

Macro Context: Positivity With Caution

At the time of writing, there is clear positivity in the market, although it is not confirmed by strong buy volume. This is understandable, given the weeks of uncertainty around geopolitics, Fed rates, and the Iran–US conflict, which has now eased slightly after the news for second round of US–Iran ceasefire talks, following a first round that produced no results.

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Key Levels: Fibonacci Resistance and Moving Averages

On the TradingView chart, it is also clear that around the 0.236 Fibonacci level there is strong resistance, reinforced by the 100MA, adding confluence to that zone.

At the same time, during the second attempt to break the Fibonacci level and the 100MA, price managed to move above them but formed a double top.

If price moves down, the next support is at $69,800, where the 50MA is located. If that level fails to hold, the next support is around $67,500, aligned with the uptrend support line.

However, if price successfully breaks above the 100MA and the 0.236 Fibonacci level and manages to hold that area, it would be a strong signal that the move can continue to the upside.

Momentum: RSI Signals Growing Strength

RSI has moved up to 60, which is also a bullish signal. It reflects positive sentiment among traders and investors, while also approaching the overbought zone.

Positive Sentiment, But Fragile

Taking all of this into account, the market shows clear signs of positive sentiment, and it appears that the major Bitcoin sell-offs are over for now. At the same time, caution remains, given the ongoing macro uncertainty.

As seen over the past six weeks, every major piece of news – positive or negative – related to the war has shifted investor sentiment and moved Bitcoin in the opposite direction within hours. For now, the conflict is still relatively recent, so market participants are reacting more to short-term developments, while still trying to position for what comes next.

At the same time, since the beginning of the war, Bitcoin has been outperforming gold, silver, and stocks, which adds another layer to the current narrative. It shows that despite volatility and headline-driven moves, capital is still favoring Bitcoin on a relative basis, even as overall sentiment remains cautious.

The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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